Ever wondered what the world (or at least America) would be like if women still didn’t have the right to vote? If you were one of the original dissenters against women being able to vote in the first place, you might try to argue that things would be exactly the same. Ever since 1920, women have proven their ‘vested interest’ in politics through activism, lobbying, and heading out to the ballot boxes across the country. Since there are more women than men in the US, they alone may even be able to decide the elections.
In this day and age you’d think men and women would be more in agreement about what is best for our country. Many people claim to have empathy for people in different situations than ourselves, even if it’s just a difference in gender, but recent poll data shows an entirely different reflection. In fact, here’s what happens when you separate everything by gender:
Nate Silver from Five Thirty-Eight decided to take this data and decided to put it into map form. Here’s his explanation below:
There’s quite a wide range — with live polls showing a notably wider gender spread than online and automated polls. But on average, Clinton leads Trump by 15 percentage points among women while trailing him by 5 points among men. How would that look on the electoral map?
Here’s a quick way to estimate it. In the polls I cited above, Clinton is doing 10 points better among women than among the electorate overall. So we’ll add 10 points to her current polls-only margin in every state to forecast her performance if women were the only ones who could vote. In addition to the states where Clinton is already leading Trump, that would put her ahead in Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Kansas, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas and the 2nd congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska. Clinton would win 458 electoral votes to just 80 for Trump.
Pretty striking difference, to say the least.
However, don’t be fooled. Those who would say that these women are only supporting Hillary “because she’s a woman” would actually be incorrect – it’s more likely they’re only supporting her because she’s a democrat. Here’s a poll of the gender differences between voters in the 2012 election, and while none of the disparities are as great as what the Atlantic (+33) and Quinnipiac University (+20) reported for female Clinton voters, they very much seem to reflect the same line of thought. Please also note that the two organizations mentioned did not have poll data from 2012, so the difference could even just be a matter of the place doing the polling: